On this day February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine…
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect January 19. In extraordinary bipartisanship, President Biden’s Middle East envoy Brett McGurk and incoming President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff worked together to negotiate the ceasefire deal. Just before year-end, I wrote:
We just might have peace in both the Middle East and Ukraine in 2025
Institute for the Study of War assessment map 1-19-2025
War of Attrition in Ukraine
Zelenskyy told the British broadcaster ITV last week that he was ready to hold talks with Russia as long as “I had an understanding that America and Europe will not abandon us and they will support us and provide security guarantees.”
After nearly 3 years of war, Ukraine is having a difficult time fielding troops as well as an inconsistent supply of ammunition from the West. Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region last summer was a hail-Mary pass to bring Russia to the negotiating table. BTW, Kursk is the site of the largest tank battle of World War II between the retreating Germans and the Soviet Red Army.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told a media conference that the war in Ukraine would last until Kyiv drops its ambitions to join NATO and withdraws from the four regions occupied by Russian forces.
Russia has lost 800,000 soldiers killed or wounded, a huge casualty cost for any country. However, Putin believes Russia can outlast the West in any war of attrition and built the BRICS trading bloc - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as well as Iran, to avoid Western economic sanctions. Several European countries are still dependent on Russian natural gas.
Syria, North Korea and Ukraine
Russia’s lack of military support to defend the Assad regime in Syria is an admission Russia’s army is stretched fighting in Ukraine. Putin recently brought 12,000 North Korea troops to help the Russians in Kursk, and about 3,000 became casualties since they weren’t trained to fight Ukrainian drones.
Ukraine can trade it’s gains in Kursk for a strategically important part of the Donbas, perhaps the north threatening Kharkiv, Ukraine’s 2nd largest city. Ukraine wants security guarantees from the EU and US, including joining NATO, but Russia will not agree.
Give Ukraine the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system
which has protected Israel from rocket, missile and drone attack, so they can protect their cities and infrastructure. When Russia invaded Ukraine 3 years ago, I thought NATO should’ve enforced a “No-fly” zone over Ukraine west of the Dnieper River. President Clinton enforced a NATO No-fly zone over the Balkans to discourage Serbian invasion of Kosovo. Last week, the French and U.K. are discussing NATO peacekeeper troops in Ukraine.
Israeli Iron Dome, American-led “No-fly” zone, and NATO peace-keeping troops provide the security Ukraine needs to agree to a ceasefire.
Zelensky tweeted 2/15/25 “[T]he world is looking up to America as the power that has the ability to not only stop the war but also help ensure the reliability of peace afterward.”
Since 600BC, the Israelites, Assyrians, Persians, Hittites and Babylonians have fought over the Middle East.
Don’t mess with Israel
While we were pre-occupied with our election, Israel decisively dismantled Hezbollah - exploding pagers wounding thousands of Hezbollah fighters, decapitating it’s leadership, and then invading Southern Lebanon to destroy it’s supply of rockets fired at Israel for decades. Hezbollah is much larger than Hamas and a much greater threat to Israel.
Remember Hezbollah killed 240 U.S. marines in 1983
With little warning, the 5-decade rule of the Bathist Assad family ended in Syria. On Oct. 6, 1973 Syria and Egypt surprise-attacked Israel in the Yom Kippur War backed by the Soviet Union, considered a face-saving victory among Arab countries. It’s said history repeats itself.
Hamas attacked Israel on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War
Iran still holds rallies to commemorate the takeover of the U.S. embassy in 1979. 45 years later, the Revolutionary Guard still chants “Death to Israel, death to America!” Since then, Iran has built proxy armies called the “Axis of Resistance” to pressure Israel - Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi. Iran supplied rockets to Hezbollah through Syria.
Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and Sunni rebels taking over Syria may finally force Hamas to accept a cease fire
Over the last year, Hamas refused numerous ceasefire proposals by the U.S. as they hoped Hezbollah and Iran would join to fight the Jews. As the Palestinians chant, “From the river to the sea.”
Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and Hamas, and loss of Syria as an ally has now isolated Iran. Israel’s recent retaliatory air strike destroyed Iran’s air defenses and missile production sites.
I hope Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi are the final terrorist armies defeated in the War on Terror.
